The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA)
Climate Prediction Center and the Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical
Meteorology Project have released an updated forecast for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane
season. Both institutions are now indicating that the rest of the 2020 season will be very
active to extremely active. NOAA states that there is an 85% chance of this season being
above normal, a 10% chance of being near normal and only a 5% chance of being below
normal. Based on statistics from 1981-2010 a normal season has about twelve (12) named
storms six (6) of which become hurricanes and three (3) are major hurricanes (i.e. category
3 and above).
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is now forecasting a likely range of 19 to 25 named
storms, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes, with 3 to 6 major hurricanes.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already broken the records for having nine (9)
named storms so early in the season. On average only two named storms develop by early
August and the ninth named storm does not form until October 4.
With the 2020 season starting at such a busy pace and updated forecasts predicting more
than twenty-one (21) named storms, there is the possibility of running out of storm names
this season.
The list in any given year has 21 names. If a storm forms after the 21st named storm
(Wilfred) this season, the next name(s) would come from the Greek alphabet, starting with
Alpha.
This has only occurred once before. After the devastating Hurricane Wilma in 2005,
activity did not stop. There were six (6) named storms after Wilma; they were Alpha, Beta,
Gamma, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta. Beta and Epsilon became hurricanes and Tropical storm
Zeta was a late season storm, which developed on December 30 2005 and dissipated on
January 7 2006.
Some of the oceanic and atmospheric conditions influencing these forecasts are:
The high-activity era conditions which suggests an extremely active
season which includes:
i. Well above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main
Development Region (MDR).
ii. Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.
iii. Weaker vertical wind shear.
iv. An enhanced West African monsoon.
The possibility of a La Nina developing during the peak of this season
which could further weaken the wind shear across the Atlantic Basin
enhancing the development and intensification of storms.
As we continue to focus on protecting our families and ourselves during this present
global health crisis, it is very important that we remember to make the necessary
preparations ahead of the peak of this hurricane season (Mid-August to MidSeptember). Be reminded that it only takes one hurricane to make landfall in our
area to make it an active season for us. Therefore, preparation should be the same
for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
The Meteorological Department St. Maarten (MDS) will continue to monitor the
development of all tropical systems closely and will issue watches or warnings
when it becomes necessary using various communication mediums such as radio,
newspaper, our website (www.meteosxm.com,) and via social media
(facebook.com/sxmweather/). It is critical that the public seek cr edible information
from official sources in order to make timely decisions that will help protect life
and property.