The Atlantic Hurricane Season had an unofficial start almost two weeks before June 1. That’s the date when the season gets officially underway. Tropical Storm Alberto developed on Saturday, May 19 over the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean, not far to the east of the coast of South Carolina in the U.S.A. On Friday, May 25, the second system (Tropical Storm Beryl) developed in about the same region. The last time that two tropical cyclones developed over the Atlantic Basin before the official start of the hurricane season was in 2007. Before that, it also happened in 1908.
The fact that two tropical cyclones developed so early over the Atlantic Basin is no sign that this hurricane season is going to be an active one. In fact, two seasonal forecasts are indicating that this is going to be a season with near or below average activity. The forecaster team of the Colorado State University (CSU), consisting of Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray, expects the 2012 season to be a slightly below average one. According to this forecast, ten named storms (average year: 12
named storms: tropical storms and hurricanes combined) are expected to develop and only four (6.5) of these should become hurricanes. Two (two) are forecast to become major hurricanes (category 3 to 5). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States forecasts an average season. It calls for nine to 15 named storms to develop. Of these, four to eight should become a hurricane and one to three are expected to become major hurricanes.
Historical data compiled by the CSU forecasters indicate that since 1949 there have been four other years with atmospheric and oceanic conditions comparable to the first part of this year. Those were 1957, 1965, 2001 and 2009. Of these four years, only in 1965 did Tropical Storm Betsy impact the weather in the SSS Islands somewhat, as it moved just east of these islands in a northnorthwesterly direction on August 28.
However a slightly below average season does not mean that hurricanes will not impact the region.
There is no better example than hurricane Andrew (twenty years ago this year) that formed and then moved over South Florida on August 24, 1992. As the first hurricane of that year, it developed quite late during a very quiet Atlantic hurricane season. It still had a major impact, since it moved as a category five hurricane over a rather densely populated area. Furthermore the seasonal forecasts give no clue where or when exactly these tropical cyclones are going to develop or how
their tracks will be and how strong they will become exactly, once they develop.
Therefore the Meteorological Department Curaçao (MDC), as the official source of forecasts and warnings, urges the authorities and the general population of our islands to start preparing for the possible threat of a tropical storm or hurricane as the hurricane season begins. As usual, the MDC continues to monitor any disturbance which could become a threat to Curaçao, Bonaire, St.Maarten, St Eustatius and Saba. In case it’s necessary, the MDC will issue watches, advisories or
warnings for these islands in order to support for the necessary actions recommended by the authorities.
The greatest hazards caused by tropical cyclones are:
- Violent winds
- Very rough seas and a high surge along the coast and
- Flooding rainfall
The remaining names prepared for this hurricane season are: Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Hélène, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie and William.